Valentino Rossi was ordered to start from the back of the grid this Sunday for the final race of the 2015 MotoGP season, after he was penalized for his part in an incident in with Marc Marquez. He appealed because, as many in the motorcycle racing community believe, the crash was Marquez’s fault. With that appeal denied, we did a little math on what it’s going to take to pull off a win.

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Here’s the official FIM statement:

On 4 November 2015, a preliminary hearing was held at the headquarters of the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) in Lausanne in the matter Valentino Rossi v. the Fédération Internationale de Motocyclisme. The FIM was represented by its Legal Director, Mr Richard Perret.

Following the hearing, the CAS issued an Order dismissing the application for a stay filed by Mr Rossi concerning the decision rendered on 25 October 2015 by the FIM Stewards (see Order attached).

The CAS ruling on the request for stay of execution does not prejudge the final award on the merits of the case. In appealing to the CAS against the decision of the FIM Stewards, Mr Rossi seeks annulment or modification of the FIM Stewards’ decision taken at the Shell Malaysia Motorcycle Grand Prix in Sepang, in which the FIM Stewards confirmed the 3 penalty points awarded by the Race Direction to Mr Rossi following an incident on Turn 14.

The FIM takes note of the ruling of the CAS. As a consequence of this ruling, at the Gran Premi de la Comunitat Valenciana, last race of the FIM World Championship Grand Prix, Mr Rossi will start from the last position on the Grid.

Rossi, who’s fighting to win his TENTH world championship, is winning the season by a mere seven points and is heading into a track that he’s had an interesting history with. He hasn’t won at Valencia since 2004, but 2006 is likely a far more memorable year as it’s when he crashed out and let the championship slip from grasp.

Valencia Stats

RiderStartsPodiumsWinsLast Win
Pedrosa131062012
Marquez5322014
Rossi16822004
Lorenzo12422013

What Needs To Happen For Rossi To Win

If Lorenzo finishes
Rossi must finish at least
1st
2nd
2nd
3rd
3rd
6th
4th
9th
5th
11th
6th
12th
7th
13th
8th
14th
9th
15th
10th (or lower)
Rossi wins

Photos: Getty Images and MotoGP